Wales & the Euro Election

I wanted to write a post on how UKIP were going to be a much bigger threat in Wales than people anticipated. I could not afford the time. So here is a post on how people overlooked UKIP’s potential for electoral gain in Wales

Wales is allocated four MEPs. In 2004, the region returned two Labour MEPs, one Conservative MEP and one Plaid Cymru MEP. As UK Polling report pointed out that “For the Liberal Democrats or UKIP to gain an MEP here they would need to get at least 50% of the first placed party’s vote.” So how did UKIP manage it? The results in the 2004 Euro elections were as follows:

Sitting MEPs and 2004 Results

1. Glenys Kinnock (Labour) 297,810 (32.1%) (Will stand down at next election)

2. Jonathan Evans (Conservative) 177,771 (19.1%) (Will stand down at next election)

3. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 159,888 (17.2%)

4. Eluned Morgan (Labour) (148,905) (Will stand down at next election)

UKIP 96,677 (10.4%)

Liberal Democrat 96,116 (10.3%)

Green 32,761 (3.6%)

BNP 27,135 (3.0%)

Forward Wales 17,280 (1.9%)

Christian Democrat 6,821 (0.7%)

Respect 5,427 (0.6%)

Welsh assembly election 2007

Political betting forecast the following results for the Welsh 2009 Euro Election based on Welsh Assembly Regional List 2007.

‘Harry Hayfield on the Euro Elections in Wales’ Political Betting

Votes Cast

Labour 250,000

Conservative 225,000

Plaid 200,000

Liberal Democrats 125,000

British National Party 75,000

United Kingdom Independence Party 50,000

Green Party 35,000

Regional Allocation: Lab 2 (n/c) Con 1 (n/c) Plaid 1 (n/c)

The actual results were

	Votes		MEPs
Party	Total	%	Total	+/-
Conservative	145,193	21.2 (+1.8)	1	0
Labour	138,852	20.3 (-12.2)	1	-1
Plaid Cymru	126,702	18.5 (+1.1)	1	0
UK Independence Party	87,585	12.8 (+2.3)	1	+1
Liberal Democrats	73,082	10.7 (+0.2)	0	0
Green Party	38,160	5.6 (+2.0)	0	0
British National Party	37,114	5.4 (+2.5)	0	0
Christian Party	13,037	1.9 (+1.9)	0	0
Socialist Labour Party	12,402	1.8 (+1.8)	0	0
No2EU	8,600	1.3 (+1.3)	0	0
Jury Team	3,793	0.6 (+0.6)	0	0

So how did he, and others, manage to get his prediction so wrong?

There were several factors.

Unlike most of England, and the last Euro elections in Wales, Wales did not have council elections at the same time as the Euro elections. This meant that turnout was always going to be lower than last time round – a factor not taken into consideration in the above prediction.

Lower turnout favours smaller parties such as UKIP. This effect is exaggerated by the voting system itself providing the smaller party usually miss out on the basis of the popularity of the major parties, as was the case in for UKIP in 2004.

The prediction was based on the 2007 Welsh Assembly results.

Party	Votes	Votes%	+/-%	Euro Elect
Labour	288,954	29.6	-6.9	y
Conservatives	209,153	21.4	2.3	y
Plaid Cymru	204,757	21	1.3	y
Liberal Democrats	114,500	11.7	-1	y
BNP	42,197	4.3	4	y
UKIP	38,490	4	0.5	y
Green	33,803	3.5	-0.1	y
Socialist Labour Party	12,209	1.2	0	y
Others	9,350	1
Welsh Christian Party	8,963	0.9	0.9	n
Communist Party of Britain	3,708	0.4	0.2	n
Christian Peoples Alliance	2,694	0.3	0.3	y
Socialist Alternative	1,865	0.2	0.2	n
Respect	1,792	0.2	0.2	n
English Democrats Party*	1,655	0.2	0.2	n
Veritas	502	0	0	n
Socialist Equality Party	292	0	0	n

Many people do not vote for the same party in different elections. It is quite understandable that the Europhobic Welsh are more likely to vote UKIP in European elections than they are for the national assembly. The same is probably true of Green Party voters.

The Welsh Assembly elections coincided with the council elections, which was reflected in higher turnout. Failing to take this into consideration inevitably lead to Political Betting prediction predicting generous returns for the major parties and the BNP whilst underestimating the support for UKIP and the Greens.

Wales had the most wasted votes of any UK Euro elections region – over 31%. This means that a significant drop in the most popular party, in this case Labour, would seriously advantage the previously non-elected parties providing that they were competitive.

Disillusionment with Labour is high. Popular Labour incumbents were stepping down. The Labour vote in Wales is in freefall. The UKIP electoral success in Wales is not as unlikely as it first appeared.

The fact that UKIP are more popular in Wales than people had anticipated should not have come as a surprise. The graph below, which can be found in Wales section of the parliamentary report on the 2004 Euro Elections, shows the voting changes from the 1999 to the 2004 Euro election. What is not shown on the graph is the turnout.

In Wales, the turnout was significantly higher in 2004 than 1999, due to coinciding with council elections. This would have favoured the big parties and disadvantaged the smaller ones, so the gains made by UKIP, BNP, Greens, are smaller than they would have been had the turnout been lower.

The Euro elections provided a dilemma for disillusioned traditional Labour voting Welsh nationals. Although some parties picked up the disillusioned Labour vote, abstention was the greatest victor. Ultimately, turnout was low – 30%, Labour lost their second Welsh Labour MEP, and UKIP won, despite receiving fewer votes than the previous election where they won none.

UPDATE

Courtesy of syniadau – the percentage change in votes from 2004. Please note this is based on vote not share of vote. The number voting is 25% down (based purely on the numbers voting – not on the percentage of the electorate voting, which would be 11% down). Therefore, a loss 25% is to be expected.

BNP 36.78% Green 16.48% UKIP -9.40% Con -18.33% PC -20.76% LibDem -23.96% Lab -53.38%

Two things can be read from these results

1. The support trend
2. The effect of low turnout

Unsurprisingly, the chart demonstrates that the bigger parties suffered the most abstentions. The BNP’s colossal growth in support in spite of low turnout is a disturbing trend. Hopefully, the effect will be diluted in the general and assembly elections, when turnout ought to be higher. The Green party’s growth, on the other hand is a welcome sight.

As for what this means the 'big four' parties in Wales, ORDOVICIUS demonstrates the trends throughout the different elections.

In a general election, Labour and the Liberal Democrats ought to perform better than they did in th recent Euro election.

For a breakdown of votes into Welsh Westminster constituencies see WalesOnline.